David Atkinson, "Climate Change in the Arctic"
David Atkinson, Assistant Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and research scientist at the UAF International Arctic Research Center
Summary: Mr. Atkinson discussed how sea ice retreat is creating shipping lanes and presenting new opportunities as well as new threats. Mr. Atkinson focused on the ten key findings of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) 2004 Report and discussed how these findings will impact the construction industry of Alaska and throughout the Arctic .
Mr. Atkinson’s presentation, “Climate Change in the Arctic: Observed Changes and Construction Implications,” used the story of the Northwest (NW) Passage as an example of how climate change is impacting the Arctic . “The retreat of the sea ice is creating the long searched for Northwest Passage ,” stated Mr. Atkinson. Many explorers have attempted to discover it since the days of Columbus in 1492. The first important attempt occurred in 1497 when Sir Francis Drake was given orders from King Henry VIII to find a route that would connect Europe to Asia . The first traverse occurred in 1906 by the Norwegian boat, the Gjoa, but this crossing of the Northwest Passage took three years to do. The first single season crossing didn’t occur until 1940. A commercial vessel accomplished a crossing in 1969 from the newly discovered oil fields at Prudhoe Bay , trying to see what the best method of transporting the oil was; by ship though the NW passage or by land. However, it had to be unstuck from the ice over 20 times by an icebreaker escort vessel proving this route was not economically viable. “That was just a few decades ago but only a couple weeks ago, a sailboat made it across!” Mr. Atkinson exclaimed.
The world’s countries still transport 90% of their goods by ship. The opening of the Arctic ice shield has made what was impenetrable before now accessible and thus generating great national interest in this new shipping lane. “We’ve seen the Russians place a flag at the North Pole. We’ve seen Canada announce the development of war ships and military bases in the arctic. And two days ago a US coast guard plane flew over the North Pole, signaling the beginning of US Coast Guard operations on the arctic coast,” declared Mr. Atkinson.
Mr. Atkinson then focused on Climate Change, discussing the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Report – 2004, a 1600 page report with ten key findings:
1. The Arctic climate is warming rapidly and much larger changes are projected. Carbon dioxide increases parallel temperature increases as well as human activity increases in land-use and fossil fuel consumption. “We know studies of Greenland ice core samples going back hundreds of thousands of years do not show changes like this, debunking the claims that this is a natural phenomenon. There is a misconception that temperature change has been uniform and consistent around the world but that is not the case,” said Mr. Atkinson. The ACIA report shows significant spatial and temporal variability; for example, some arctic areas reported warming while others reported cooling. The report shows increased changes during winter and spring as well as changes in hydrology such as snow cover.
2. Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide implications. The Polar Regions represent only one end of the planetary climate thermal engine. When one area is altered it affects the global workings of the entire planet giving rise to the potential for wide ranging impacts.
3. Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift, causing wide-ranging impacts. “Changes in vegetation can affect builders who will need to consider more carefully what vegetation is selected for shade, wind breaks and landscaping. What is hardy now may not be in the future if plant hardiness zones change,” stated Mr. Atkinson.
4. Animal species migration patterns, diversity, range, and distribution is likely to change. While an ecosystem issue, when imbalances occur, it creates a strong potential for impact on local economies from subsistence economies (for example, due to a lack of seals to hunt) to commercial economies (for example a disruption in fisheries). As ecosystems change, it can also have a derivative impact on infrastructure building demands.
5. Many coastal communities and facilities face increasing exposures to storms. Storms can inundate communities from floods and tsunami’s as well as cause erosion of the shoreline on which they are built, not just ocean shores, but also river shores as well. This will impact Alaska as 80% of the Alaskan populations live in coastal communities and much of the infrastructure. Houses and buildings are falling into the ocean as the shore erodes. Storms aren’t particularly stronger, but they are longer. The storms are hurricane force storms such as those that occur on the east coast. However, the east coast hurricanes blow by fairly quickly bringing 9-10 foot wave surges. Arctic storms can bring 11 foot wave surges and linger for days, intensifying the damage they cause. The loss of sea ice is a critical problem because sea ice protects the coast from wave action that causes erosion and storms. The loss of sea ice is a problem for hunters who use the sea ice as well as the animal species who live on the sea ice. The fate of the hunters and the animals are tied together. Hunters have to go increasingly farther out to reach the sea ice. The incidence of hunters getting lost at sea is increasing as well.
6. Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources. This increases opportunities in shipping from the opening of the Northwest Passage along the Canadian/ Alaska coastline as well as creating a Northern Sea route along the European and Russian Coastlines. Along with increased opportunities come increased threats such as shipwrecks from submerged icebergs. Examples of recent shipwrecks are the Merchant Vessel (MV) Cougar Ace in 2006 and the MV Selendang Ayu in 2004.
7. Thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings and other infrastructure. This has key implications for the construction industry. “An important consideration to keep in mind is that this is a moving target. You may think the permafrost has melted and is safe to build on, but the soil might continue to change so the type of foundation put in might not be suitable after it is done changing, shortening the lifespan of the structure,” stated Mr. Atkinson.
8. Indigenous communities are facing major economic and cultural impacts.
9. Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels will affect people, plants, animals and construction materials.
10. Multiple influences interact to cause impacts on people and ecosystems. “This is a harder finding for sectors that are operationally focused to get a grip on,” opined Mr. Atkinson.
Mr. Atkinson concluded his presentation with a discussion of how climate change will affect the construction and insurance sectors. Arctic infrastructure will need to include planning for permafrost thawing. Setback legislation could perhaps defray coastal degradation issues. Communities with known coastal inundation issues should be built to withstand flooding such as with elevated structures where the wave surge just washes underneath the houses. The difficulty is how to effectively plan for the future when everything is rapidly changing. The construction sector must plan for a combination of all these changes along with a probable increase in northern populations resulting in an increased demand for infrastructures.